How rapidly is AI capability advancing in task complexity?
AI has progressed from handling seconds-long tasks to hour-long tasks in just a few years, with systems expected to manage days or weeks of human work soon. This represents a dramatic acceleration in capability scaling that reshapes discovery timelines.
- “from only being able to do tasks that a person can do in a few seconds to tasks that take a person more than an hour”
- “We expect to have systems that can do tasks that take a person days or weeks soon”
SourceOpenAI
UpdatedNov 8, 2025
Canonical URL/n/ai-capability-surge-reshapes-discovery-timelines-8ca4a297-8ca4a297
- • What economic impacts will AI discovery systems create?
- • How are AI costs changing relative to intelligence capabilities?
- • What specific intellectual competitions can AI systems now outperform humans in?
What economic impacts will AI discovery systems create?
AI systems that discover new knowledge will significantly impact the world, potentially requiring changes to the fundamental socioeconomic contract. The economic transition may be very difficult despite the potential for widely-distributed abundance.
- • “AI systems that can discover new knowledge are likely to have a significant impact on the world”
- • “the economic transition may be very difficult in some ways, and it is even possible that the fundamental socioeconomic contract will have to change”
How are AI costs changing relative to intelligence capabilities?
The cost per unit of intelligence has fallen steeply at approximately 40x per year over recent years. This dramatic cost reduction makes advanced AI capabilities increasingly accessible while accelerating capability development.
- • “the cost per unit of a given level of intelligence has fallen steeply; 40x per year is a reasonable estimate over the last few years”